(Blackjack continued)

Counting Cards

     

Once you have mastered basic strategy you can move on to the next skill level and learn to count cards. Counting cards is a skill that can give the player a slight mathematical edge over the casino. This does not mean that you will be able to quit your job and hop around from casino to casino amassing fortunes, which some might have you believe. What it means is that over the long run (which can be years) a skilled blackjack player, under favorable conditions, should theoretically win a little more than he\she loses. (But, I don't know of any blackjack player that has won over the long run.)

Achieving a mathmatical edge at blackjack is possible because as the cards are dealt, the composition of the deck changes. Since certain cards are favorable to the dealer while others are favorable to the players, the chances of a player winning or losing ebbs and flows with the changing composition of the deck. As you probably guessed, ten value cards and aces are favorable to the player while they hurt the dealer. These cards favor the player because of two reasons: (1) tens and aces combine for blackjack which pays 3:2 and (2) ten value cards bust a dealers stiff of 12-16 (keep in mind that a dealer must hit on anything less than 17). For similar reasons, small cards help the house and hurt the player. Small cards help the dealer to draw to a hand while they force the players, who have to play their hand first, to draw multiple times and risk busting (and if the dealer and player both bust, the dealer still wins). Certain cards hurt nor help the player and are considered neutral.

Back in the 1960's, a man by the name of Edward Thorp wrote a book titled Beat the Dealer. In his famous book, Mr. Thorp told the world about computer simulations which showed that when 5's are played out of a deck, the player had a big advantage. Back in those days, you simply kept up with the 5's (which was not hard to do considering casinos only used one deck) and bet a large chunk of your bankroll when they were all played out. The casinos soon caught on to this and made a few "adjustments". Today, most blackjack tables offer multiple deck games with rules not as favorable as those used prior to the publication of Beat the Dealer.

Since Beat the Dealer many more books have been published about casino blackjack. Some good and some not so good. Furthermore, computers have since allowed for extremely detailed studies of the game which have resulted in the development of numerous count strategies of varying strengths.

For the purposes of this tutorial, I will only be explaining a very basic high-low count strategy. The advantage to using a more complex but stronger count strategy is that one can achieve a higher mathematical edge over the house. However, strong count strategies are generally more difficult to learn and master and open the door to player error. A simpler and weaker count strategy will give the player a smaller edge over the house, but is much easier to master and avoids significant player error. I suggest mastering the basic high-low count provided here and then move on to a higher level counting system.

As I have mentioned, the composition of the deck changes with play and the composition affects the outcome of the hand (from a statistical point of view). For every deck in a shoe there are, of course, 52 cards. For each set of 52 cards there are 20 small cards with totals of 2-6, 20 big cards with totals of 10 and Ace, and 12 neutral cards with totals of 7-9. The ratio of big cards to small cards is what a card counter is concerned with.

Before the first hand of a session is dealt, we will consider the deck neutral because, according to our count strategy's definition of big cards (10, J, Q, K, A) and small cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6), there are the same number of big cards as small cards (a ratio of 1:1). A neutral count has the total of zero. For every big card we see we subtract 1. For every small card we see we add 1. Therefore, our running count is either negative, positive, or neutral. (Remember to start the count over when the decks are shuffled.) When the count is positive, we consider the advantage to be in favor of the player. (Note that this is not always the case, but is an assumption of our count strategy based on statistics that show it to be the case more often than not.) The advantage to the player increases as the positive count increases. Likewise, when the count is negative (or even neutral) the advantage belongs to the house. The house edge increases as the negative count increases.

Over the long run, there will be as many negative counts as positive counts and the house will win out statistically with the advantage it has on the neutral count. So what can be done about this? If we bet more when the count is positive and less when the count is negative we should overcome the house edge. Depending on how much we spread our bets, we may even establish a small advantage for ourselves.

The spread is the range of units you bet between negative and positive counts of a shoe. A common spread is 1-5 units. If you are playing on a $5 table, your spread may be $5 - $25. In this case $5 would be your smallest bet when the advantage belongs to the house and increasing to a maximum of $25 as the advantage grows in your favor. In this scenario, most will use a base bet of $10 at a neutral count and decrease to $5 on a negative count while keeping $25 as their maximum bet. I prefer to use a base bet of one unit. In other words, bet one unit at a neutral or negative count and increase my bet according to the positive count.

One thing that can make life uncomfortable for a card counter is spreading bets out too far. There are some things that can be done to help increase your spread without catching too much heat from the casino .What could help make a pit boss or a dealer think that you are a dumb player just betting randomly? I have used the following phrases to help achieve this goal: "I got a hunch", "I'm due some good cards", and "Better not press my luck". Sometimes, a jump in your bet after several bad losses in a row will appear that you are just attempting to make up losses. Likewise, upping your bet after several wins can appear that you are just pressing your luck. Although I believe that card counting and player bans are way over-hyped, (I don't have proof, but I speculate that the casino industry secretly promotes counting with all the hoopla over alleged numerous player bans), I have felt the icy stare of pit bosses from time to time (whether real or imagined). Therefore, if you decide to experiment with ways to increase the spread, do so at your own risk.

A very common and effective tactic to achieve a higher spread is to just get up and leave when the cards are bad. Unless you like pain, why keep playing a shoe when all of the big cards have been played out? When you see that you are in a hopeless shoe, leave the table and take a restroom break. By the time you get back, the dealer should be shuffling.