(Blackjack continued)

True Count

     

The high-low strategy requires keeping a running count, which I explained above. The running count (or actual count) can be deceiving. What does it mean after one hand if the running count is +1? At this point there are plenty of cards left in the deck and the +1 running count is diluted and weak. Let's say, for the sake of clarity, that you are playing heads up with a dealer (one on one) and there are only five cards left. (Most casinos re-shuffle at about the 2/3 mark of a shoe, so a game with only 5 cards left will never happen except in rare novelty blackjack games that deal to the last card.) Furthermore, let's say that of the five cards left, there are three big cards and two are small cards. The running count is still only +1, but it is much stronger. This is because the true count is around + 10. The true count is used to achieve a better understanding of the composition of the deck, which is used in some strategies to determine optimal wagers and variations to basic strategy.

In the high-low system it is important to be aware of what is known as the true count. The true count is the running count divided by the estimated number of decks left in the shoe. TC = RC/#D. This definition varies. The most common variation is calculating the true count using the number of estimated half-decks left in the shoe.

In a double deck game with most of two decks left, the true count of a +1 running count would be: 1 (RC) divided by 2 (# decks) which equals + .5 (TC). With only 5 cards left you would first have to determine what percentage of a deck remains, which is 5 divided by 52 = something like .0961. Then 1 (RC) divided by .0961 (# decks) = 10.4 (TC). Most of us can not calculate something like that in our heads. The good news is that you do not have to. Keeping a good running count and an educated guess of the true count is good enough for most situations.

This is why I prefer double deck pitch games over six deck shoe games. First of all, the true count is easier to calculate in the double deck games and; secondly, the double deck games are normally reshuffled before the math gets crazy.

If nothing else, simply be aware that the further you play into a shoe, the stronger a running count becomes. Here are a few other true count conversion examples:
(1) 1 deck left and a RC of +6: (easy one) TC = 6/1 = 6
(2) 2 decks left with a RC of +6: TC = 6/2 = 3
(3) 4 decks with a RC of -2: TC = 2/4 = -.5
(4) 1/2 of a deck with a RC of -4 = -4/.5 = -8